Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Final Surge in the Credit Crisis Litigation Wave?

Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Final Surge in the Credit Crisis Litigation Wave? - 10/19/2009

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Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Final Surge in the Credit Crisis Litigation Wave?
Kevin LaCroix

The D & O Diary. October 19, 2009
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EXCERPT: The worst of the global financial crisis may be past, and we may even be well on the road to economic recovery, but there still may be considerable pain yet to come, particularly in connection with commercial mortgages. Increased vacancies, declining property values and shortages of refinancing capital could mean increasing numbers of commercial mortgage defaults ahead. These problems could spell trouble for banks holding commercial mortgage loans, as well as for those who invested in securities backed by commercial mortgages (CMBS). These problems likely will lead to commercial mortgage-related litigation, in what may be the final surge in the credit crisis-related litigation wave. […] Another source of difficulty is that property owners are unable to refinance as mortgages come due. The August 31 Journal article reports that by the end of 2012, $153 billion in loans that make up CMBS are coming due, and as much as $100 billion will face difficulty in refinancing. Declining property values are contributing to the problem. According to Bloomberg, commercial property prices have fallen 39 percent since their 2007 peak. As the Journal article notes, the property values have "fallen so far that borrowers won’t be able to extend existing mortgages or replace them with new debt." All of this spells serious trouble for already struggling banks. Banks hold $1.8 trillion in commercial mortgages and construction loans, and as the Journal notes, "delinquencies on this debt already have played a role in the increase in bank failures this year." Indeed, banks’ exposure to commercial mortgage losses is a serious concern for banking regulators, particularly since banks have been "slow to take losses on their commercial real estate loans," according to an October 7, 2009 Wall Street Journal article.

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