Is it Possible 1,000 Banks Could Fail?

Is it Possible 1,000 Banks Could Fail? - 8/31/2009

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HEADLINE NEWS:

Is it Possible 1,000 Banks Could Fail?
Kevin LaCroix

The D & O Diary. August 31, 2009
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EXCERPT: The FDIC’s August 27, 2009 announcement in its latest Quarterly Banking Profile that during the second quarter of 2009 it had increased the number of financial institutions on its "Problem List" from 305 to 416 (a 36% increase) caused quite a stir. The Wall Street Journal’s lead article the next day referred to the FDIC’s "sick list" and other media sources also buzzed with the news. And well they might. As I noted in the prior issue of InSights, the number of banks on the FDIC’s "Problem List" and the assets they represent have both grown rapidly. The 416 institutions on the list at the end of the second quarter of 2009, representing assets of $299.8 billion, contrasts dramatically with the end of the second quarter of 2008, when there were "only" 117 institutions on the list representing $78.3 billion in assets. This nearly 300 percent increase in the number of problem banks in just one year, along with the nearly 400 percent increase in the assets the problem banks represent, are both deeply troublesome developments. The FDIC itself noted in its Quarterly Banking Profile that the current number of problem banks is the highest such count since June 30, 1994, and the assets they represent are at the highest level since December 31, 1993. It is hardly surprising that these disturbing developments and the trends they represent have triggered some daunting projections about what the future may hold. Among the most alarmist, and the one that has garnered the most media attention, is the statement on CNBC by banking veteran and investor John Kanas that the number of failed banks could reach 1,000 by the end of next year.

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